Possible scenario
Pragmatic Side Deal
40% Chance
Sheinbaum's denial proves to be domestic political positioning rather than a hard rejection of compromise. Mexico and the U.S. find a face-saving path that avoids labeling energy changes as trade-deal conditions while giving U.S. firms more certainty.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Utilities +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- SRE+1.6%
- TRP+1.3%
- TALO+0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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