Possible scenario
Mexico Holds Firm
20% Chance
Sheinbaum converts the denial into a firmer negotiating line and argues that Mexican energy sovereignty is not negotiable under USMCA. This outcome is plausible given her electoral mandate, the elimination of independent regulators and Morena's preference for state-led energy policy.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.4%
- Utilities -1.1%
- Industrials -0.4%
Tickers
- TALO-3.2%
- SRE-1.9%
- TRP-1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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