Possible scenario
Stalemate Through Midterms
42% Chance
Tehran continues slow-walking the U.S. channel because any pre-election breakthrough would hand President Trump a political win. Washington avoids military action before the midterms, while Oman, Qatar, and European intermediaries keep messages moving.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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