Possible scenario
Post-Election Framework
28% Chance
Once the midterm political calendar passes, Iran has less incentive to deny Trump a headline and re-engages on sequencing. The most plausible deal is limited: shipping guarantees around Hormuz, sanctions relief steps, and monitored custody of high-enriched uranium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.3%
- Consumer Services +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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