Possible scenario
Escalation After Deadlock
20% Chance
The delay strategy backfires if Washington concludes Tehran is negotiating in bad faith or if regional proxies act before diplomacy resumes. The likeliest escalation is limited and maritime-focused rather than a declared U.S.-Iran war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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