Possible scenario
Wider Drone Escalation
20% Chance
The rapid construction of Millerovo is replicated at other Russian airfields, allowing Russia to build a distributed Geran-5 launch network. This increases Ukraine's interception costs and pushes NATO capitals to accelerate air-defense and counter-UAS procurement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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