Possible scenario
Contained Geran Expansion
45% Chance
Russia brings the Millerovo site online and uses it to increase Geran-5 launch tempo against Ukrainian rear areas, but the effect remains operational rather than strategic. Ukraine adapts with dispersal, mobile air defense, and strikes on logistics nodes, keeping the development from becoming a decisive battlefield shift.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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