Possible scenario
Emergency Powers Expand
28% Chance
The government moves beyond curfews toward emergency-style measures, including protest bans, faster prosecutions, and broader police search powers. This path becomes likely if another protester dies, public buildings are attacked, or prefects say ordinary policing is insufficient.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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