Possible scenario
Curfews Restore Order
42% Chance
The most likely path is that curfews, mass arrests, and a heavy Interior Ministry deployment gradually reduce nightly violence. President Emmanuel Macron and the prime minister avoid a formal emergency declaration while keeping pressure on local prefects to enforce bans on gatherings.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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