Possible scenario
Budget Crisis Deepens
20% Chance
The unrest remains tied to the budget fight, giving Marine Le Pen's National Rally and Jean-Luc Mélenchon's La France Insoumise an opening to attack the government. Even if street violence cools, the political focus shifts to whether Macron can pass spending cuts without losing parliamentary control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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