Possible scenario
Onchain Rotation Accelerates
42% Chance
The exclusion of Bitcoin becomes a symbol of institutional interest shifting toward higher-beta onchain assets, especially Solana, Aave, liquid staking, and multichain DeFi. Given the recent SEC commodity treatment for liquid staking and strong Solana activity, this is the most likely near-term narrative.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
- COIN+2.3%
- +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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