Possible scenario
Iran Relief Advances
23% Chance
The market interprets the loss as evidence that war-premium bets have been undermined by the Trump administration's sanctions-relief overture. If diplomacy progresses, crude prices fall further as traders price a higher probability of Iranian barrels returning.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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