Possible scenario
Administrative Containment
30% Chance
The White House and DHS try to contain the controversy without abandoning the broader immigration crackdown. ICE issues new field guidance, shifts messaging toward error correction, and keeps arrest targets largely intact.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.1%
Tickers
- GEO-1.9%
- CXW-1.9%
- PLTR-0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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