Possible scenario
Wider Shipping Escalation
20% Chance
Russia expands attacks from grain ships to tankers and port berths, raising the perceived threat to all commercial vessels using Ukraine's Black Sea ports. This would be a material escalation from harassment of the corridor to a broader campaign against maritime trade.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.