Possible scenario
Contained Port Disruption
45% Chance
Russia continues targeted strikes on vessels and port infrastructure around Pivdennyi, Odesa and Chornomorsk, but Ukraine keeps the reopened export corridor functioning at reduced capacity. Insurers and shipowners raise war-risk premiums, while grain and tanker movements slow rather than stop.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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