Possible scenario
Jakarta opens probes
40% Chance
Indonesia's Environment and Forestry Ministry uses the Greenpeace findings and satellite hot-spot data to open formal reviews of concession holders in Sumatra and Kalimantan. The most likely official response is targeted enforcement rather than a blanket industry crackdown, given the economic importance of palm oil and pulp exports.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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