Possible scenario
U.S. Retaliatory Strikes
27% Chance
The Biden administration concludes that repeated tanker attacks despite escorts require a direct military response. The most likely form is limited strikes on IRGC missile, drone, radar, or boat facilities, designed to restore deterrence without targeting Iran's senior leadership.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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