Possible scenario
Negotiated Shipping Pause
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and the United Nations press Tehran and Washington toward a temporary shipping arrangement. Iran may accept limited relief, inspections language, or humanitarian carve-outs in return for pausing attacks, especially if it believes the latest strike wave has gained leverage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.9%
- Consumer Services +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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