Possible scenario
Contained Maritime Escalation
38% Chance
Iran continues calibrated tanker attacks and harassment while avoiding mass casualties or a direct strike on U.S. warships. Washington expands escorts, sanctions enforcement, and intelligence support, but both sides keep the conflict below the threshold of full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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