Possible scenario
Surcharges Become Standard
40% Chance
Container lines broadly copy Maersk's emergency fuel surcharges as the Hormuz disruption keeps bunker fuel, insurance, and voyage times elevated. Cargo owners absorb higher spot and contract add-ons because alternative capacity remains scarce after Red Sea and Gulf diversions.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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