Possible scenario
Gulf Disruption Worsens
25% Chance
The Middle East conflict further restricts Gulf tanker and container movements, forcing more carriers to suspend calls and buy higher-priced fuel outside normal hubs. Markets price a renewed oil-supply shock and higher freight inflation rather than a simple pass-through surcharge.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.