Possible scenario
Diplomacy Calms Routes
23% Chance
Regional mediation and convoy coordination reduce the immediate threat to Gulf shipping, even if the conflict remains unresolved. Carriers keep some surcharges in place temporarily, but oil, insurance, and freight-rate risk premia begin to unwind.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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