Possible scenario
Limited Military Clash
30% Chance
A miscalculation or deliberate IRGC action leads to a short exchange involving drones, missiles, patrol boats, or U.S. defensive strikes. Both governments try to keep the clash contained, but markets react to the higher probability of sustained disruption around the Persian Gulf.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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