Possible scenario
Coercive Naval Standoff
45% Chance
Iran tries to deter U.S. carrier movements with patrol boats, missiles on alert, and public warnings, but avoids a direct attack. Washington keeps naval forces near the Gulf and uses air patrols and sanctions threats rather than immediate new strikes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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