Possible scenario
Limited Maritime Attacks
38% Chance
The most likely path is a calibrated Houthi campaign against Saudi-linked shipping rather than an unrestricted Red Sea blockade. The Houthis have precedent for using maritime threats to gain leverage while avoiding a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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