Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
25% Chance
Omani and UN mediation could still restrain escalation because Riyadh and the Houthis both have incentives to avoid a costly maritime conflict. Under this path, threats remain rhetorical while back-channel talks produce a tactical pause.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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