Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliates Selectively
25% Chance
Riyadh responds with limited strikes against Houthi missile and drone infrastructure in northern Yemen. The operation is calibrated to restore deterrence without directly expanding the conflict to Iranian territory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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