Possible scenario
Interception Remains Contained
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Saudi air defenses prevent damage and both sides avoid an immediate large escalation. Riyadh keeps forces on alert while using Omani and UN channels to warn the Houthis against further launches.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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