Possible scenario
Energy Infrastructure Threatened
20% Chance
The conflict shifts from symbolic targeting of Riyadh toward threats against Saudi energy infrastructure. Even without a major successful strike, the possibility of attacks near Abqaiq, Ras Tanura, Jizan, or Yanbu would lift the geopolitical risk premium in crude.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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