Possible scenario
Sustained Deep-Strike Campaign
36% Chance
Ukraine continues targeting Russia's missile and propellant supply chain after demonstrating repeated reach beyond the border. The most likely path is a calibrated campaign by Ukraine's SBU and military intelligence that avoids the largest Russian oil export nodes while degrading weapons production.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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