Possible scenario
Attacks Spread Offshore
25% Chance
The killings embolden other pirate groups or reveal a broader criminal network already operating from Puntland waters. Shipping companies and insurers respond with higher risk premiums and tighter routing guidance through the Gulf of Aden and western Indian Ocean.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.9%
- Finance -0.3%
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
- FRO-1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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