Possible scenario
Gray-Zone Pressure
25% Chance
Russia chooses pressure short of open war, using drones, electronic warfare and sabotage risks to test NATO response times. Grynkewich's low-risk baseline still holds, but the alliance faces repeated localized incidents.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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