Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
12% Chance
Military-to-military communication improves after a series of warnings from NATO capitals and Moscow signals it does not want a direct clash. Eastern flank defenses remain elevated, but the near-term risk premium falls.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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