Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
55% Chance
Grynkewich's assessment proves broadly correct: Russia avoids a deliberate large-scale strike on NATO territory while continuing operations focused on Ukraine. NATO maintains heightened vigilance in Poland, Romania and the Baltic states without moving to emergency footing.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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