Possible scenario
Safety Pause
20% Chance
A near-miss, data outage, or controller-reported anomaly does not necessarily prove the AI caused a safety problem, but the political sensitivity after the Reagan crash forces a pause. The FAA, NTSB, and congressional committees scrutinize whether deployment moved faster than certification and training allowed.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.0%
- Technology -0.7%
- Industrials -0.5%
Tickers
- -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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