Possible scenario
Managed De-escalation
42% Chance
Vilnius and Kyiv treat the incursion as an operational failure rather than a hostile act. NATO avoids escalation because Ukraine admits responsibility quickly and Lithuania can show its air-defense procedures worked.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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