Possible scenario
Beijing Retaliates Selectively
18% Chance
Beijing responds with limited countermeasures rather than a broad trade escalation. Retaliation focuses on U.S. technology platforms, procurement restrictions, and public support for domestic AI champions.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Telecommunications -0.4%
- Business Services -0.4%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- AAPL-0.7%
- MSFT-0.5%
- -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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