Possible scenario
Israeli Countermeasures Escalate
20% Chance
Israel could choose to make an example of Canada if it views Ottawa as encouraging wider allied sanctions. The most likely retaliation would be diplomatic or administrative rather than broad trade retaliation, but an escalatory response could raise geopolitical risk modestly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Tickers
- ESLT-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.