Possible scenario
Diplomatic Rift Contained
30% Chance
Israel denounces Canada's restrictions, but both governments keep the dispute within normal diplomatic channels. Ottawa frames the measure as settlement-specific and pairs it with humanitarian aid, reducing the risk of broader Canada-Israel economic retaliation.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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