Possible scenario
Proxy Maritime Friction
25% Chance
Iran-aligned groups test the expanded U.S. naval presence with drones, missiles, or harassment of commercial traffic. Washington avoids direct strikes on Iranian territory, but maritime-risk pricing rises as ship operators reassess Gulf and Red Sea routes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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