Possible scenario
Diplomatic Off-Ramp
18% Chance
The deployment increases pressure on Iran while regional mediators press both sides to avoid a naval incident. A limited deconfliction arrangement or informal pause in proxy attacks reduces the immediate risk premium in oil and volatility markets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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