Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
45% Chance
USS Makin Island reaches the Middle East as part of an expanded U.S. deterrence posture around Iran, the Gulf of Oman, and the Red Sea. Tehran and its partners avoid direct confrontation while U.S. forces increase patrol tempo and visible readiness.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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