Possible scenario
Stickier Inflation Acceleration
25% Chance
Inflation data remain too firm, causing Kashkari's two-hike outlook to look conservative. The Fed's communications turn more forceful, and markets price a higher chance of either an earlier hike or more than one move in 2027.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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