Possible scenario
Data-Dependent Pause
20% Chance
The Fed remains hawkish in rhetoric but incoming data make another 2026 hike less certain. This scenario becomes plausible if labor-market cooling accelerates or if inflation eases enough to challenge the need for Kashkari's projected path.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.5%
- Technology +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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