Baseline Hawkish Path

Kashkari's forecast becomes the modal interpretation of the Fed's reaction function: one additional hike before year-end and another in 2027 if inflation remains too high. This is most likely because the recent timeline shows officials have shifted back toward inflation control and already projected more 2026 hikes.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.