Possible scenario
Race Stays Tight
20% Chance
The Newsom email is meaningful as a signal but not large enough to reshape the race by itself. Hinojosa and Abbott remain locked in a high-spending contest where turnout, litigation over maps, and national partisan mood dominate.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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