Possible scenario
Probe Widens
25% Chance
Authorities uncover communications with extremist sympathizers in Oman or elsewhere in the Gulf, expanding the case beyond a single pilot. This would be a sector-level aviation-security shock, with travel advisories and temporary operational reviews more likely than a broad market selloff.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.4%
- Industrials +1.1%
- Business Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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