Possible scenario
Snap Election Called
40% Chance
Pedro Sánchez concludes that the PSOE-Sumar minority government can no longer pass housing or budget legislation after Junts refuses to back eviction curbs. The king dissolves parliament and Spain enters a short campaign dominated by rents, evictions, Catalan leverage, and whether the PP can govern with Vox.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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