Possible scenario
Housing Compromise Passes
25% Chance
Sánchez avoids immediate dissolution by offering a narrower housing package: temporary rent aid, faster social-housing procurement, and targeted eviction delays for vulnerable households. Junts abstains or is bypassed through smaller regional parties, lowering near-term election risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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