Possible scenario
Polarization Deepens
20% Chance
The boycott hardens voting blocs at the UN, with Israel-aligned states and many Global South governments clashing over whether Durban is anti-racist or antisemitic. This could spill into additional symbolic resolutions but is unlikely to become a full economic or security crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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